FOX Business News planning to winnow field for next GOP debate

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Dec 22, 2015 No Comments ›› admin

LOGIC MINUTE
By Lynn Woolley

And then there were six.

FOX News has announced it will look at data from five national polls to determine the six candidates that will make the prime time debate on January 14. As things stand now, the new criteria would make the main stage look like this: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie.

There would still be an undercard – this time with regular second tiers Huckabee, Santorum and Pataki joined by newly deposed John Kasich, Rand Paul, and Carly Fiorina.

If form holds, this means each debate has six participants, which is somewhat manageable. And note this: the prime debate has three so-called “outsiders” and three “establishments.” Expect one of each of those groups to be culled before the next debate. And that will leave four!

Fox News' line-up for the prime-time Republican presidential debate in August 2015

Fox News’ line-up for the prime-time Republican presidential debate in August 2015

Trump, Cruz, and Rubio will likely make the final rounds.

So who will be the fourth?

I think Carson will eventually be the outsider to fall away because Trump and Cruz are not going anywhere. The drama will be on the establishment side. Rubio is a solid bet to stay in the race until the end. That means either Bush or Christie is about to be eliminated. Christie has already been relegated to the undercard once before. Bush is loaded with campaign cash and he has FOX News and the Wall Street Journal on his side. So here’s our final four: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush.

The next couple of debates will get us down to three.

I think Bush will be the next to drop out. Then, we’ll see a battle royal among Trump, Cruz and Rubio with the establishment gravitating to Rubio. It’s all starting to become clear.

lynn@BeLogical.com

FOX News criteria for the next FBN debate:

In order to qualify for the primetime debate, candidates must either:

• Place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News.
OR
• Place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls recognized by FOX News.
OR
• Place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls recognized by FOX News.

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