2018 Midterm Elections Situation Report Your vote – no matter which side you are on – will determine the course of history.

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Oct 9, 2018 No Comments ›› admin

by Lynn Woolley

So, where do we stand?

POLITICO says the Republican House is crumbling.

The Washington-based political rag says there are now 209 seats now solidly Democrat or leaning that way. The Dems need 218 seats to make Nancy Pelosi speaker again. A total of 68 seats seems to be in play – now rated as “lean Republican” which means they can be had by the unhinged Left.

Beto vs Cruz (Texas Tribune)

Only about 6 Democrat seats seem to be in jeopardy.

The fine print says that if the Dems get all 209 seats that are leaning their way – they still fall 9 short. It’s a thin number but it means the House is still the GOP’s to lose.

In Texas, demographics are working against Beto O’Rourke. Even though polls show the race has tightened, according to a study by the Texas Politics Project. Director James Henson, breaking down the numbers, says even a worst case scenario has Cruz winning by 550,000 votes.

What Cruz needs is a big Republican turnout.

Cruz has more voters than Beto does. The problem is getting them motivated. O’Rourke is counting on Millennials and Hispanics – hoping that young people have been taught to hate Trump and Cruz by liberal professors, and that Hispanics will vote for open borders.

It probably won’t work.

According to Henson, an average of 6 percent of Republican voters in Texas will defect from their party, and might abstain form voting for Cruz. If all of them vote for Beto, he still comes in 550,000 votes short.

Now, assume that Beto gets the GOP defections to vote for him, AND he succeeds in getting 20 percent of new voters to support him – coming from traditionally low-turnout groups. That’s a high number, but it’s Beto’s best-case outcome. He still loses by 175,000 votes.

So if Cruz can rally the vote, he is safe. I’ve predicted on WBDaily that Cruz will by 8 percent. I just remember the Wendy Davis hype when the left-wing, pro-abortion candidate ran for governor. The Dems thought they had a political superstar but it never happened.

Meanwhile, the polls are starting to favor Cruz.

In a CBS News poll released over the weekend, Cruz leads by 6 points among likely voters (50% – 44%). Emerson College did an e-poll of likely voters, showing Cruz comfortably ahead (47% – 42%).

Hillary Clinton and why Dems don’t deserve to win.

I love to read Michael Goodwin in the New York Post. His new column discusses a Trump comment at the final presidential debate back on October 19, 2016. Trump said he might not accept the results of the election if he thought it was rigged (you know, like the DNC rigged the primary against Bernie Sanders).

Hillary, as were all Dems, was just stunned by what Trump had said. She accused Trump of denigrating our democracy and was “appalled” that a major party candidate would say such a thing.

Fast-forward to today and virtually no Democrat has accepted the fact that Trump won. Goodwin cites the Kavanaugh hearings as the latest example of the “Resistance.” Other examples include the Russia Collusion narrative (as an explanation of why shoo-in Hillary lost), and left-wing protests and violence.

Democrats tried to destroy Brett Kavanaugh without evidence or corroboration of scurrilous charges. They want power so badly they are willing to destroy anyone or do anything to obtain it.

That’s why your vote – no matter which side you are on – will determine the course of history.

lynn@BeLogical.com

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